Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 14.354221 17.494036 20.978390 25.107094 29.840126 35.070767 41.261938
2025-11-09 9.782931 13.807763 18.767835 25.219880 33.273575 42.875517 55.059696
2025-11-16 7.153467 11.406913 17.110606 25.079831 35.667371 48.982547 66.696769
2025-11-23 5.267132 9.422266 15.442219 24.398638 36.943507 53.428122 76.205641
2025-11-30 4.312617 8.517579 15.018303 25.194679 40.052749 60.245196 88.951491
2025-12-07 3.341415 7.333885 13.937067 24.816761 41.361745 64.584666 98.497640
2025-12-14 2.714460 6.573558 13.359994 25.057548 43.479956 70.051952 109.730752
2025-12-21 2.010798 5.475687 12.018913 23.884708 43.304876 72.151126 116.259641
2025-12-28 1.697032 5.074214 11.814509 24.514583 45.898126 78.344641 128.807804
2026-01-04 1.403033 4.630593 11.450264 24.803777 47.925334 83.743591 140.368491
2026-01-11 1.178488 4.282528 11.206654 25.257173 50.213598 89.601446 152.782207
2026-01-18 1.011155 4.027850 11.105673 25.942138 52.902878 96.161596 166.443054
2026-01-25 0.780068 3.533464 10.452931 25.595696 53.943356 100.402476 177.121622
2026-02-01 0.620424 3.185539 10.063589 25.722322 55.830738 106.113714 190.343602
2026-02-08 0.480114 2.829295 9.577465 25.580877 57.198790 111.008418 202.434878
2026-02-15 0.349061 2.424553 8.876517 24.889163 57.476864 114.075612 211.709117
2026-02-22 0.294619 2.299098 8.875398 25.697551 60.602384 122.027084 229.019678
2026-03-01 0.217842 2.014065 8.369713 25.313784 61.400611 126.026388 240.050225
2026-03-08 0.171583 1.843739 8.152766 25.558301 63.423609 132.196900 254.791095
2026-03-15 0.111312 1.519896 7.376486 24.367218 62.480065 133.107996 260.850102
2026-03-22 0.090817 1.435598 7.351017 25.006915 65.291504 140.772740 278.378608
2026-03-29 0.070194 1.322229 7.197150 25.300598 67.393089 147.225446 294.030371
2026-04-05 0.055222 1.234655 7.112577 25.761011 69.864991 154.426397 311.131830